Instruction 14-4
a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 101

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-4
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010.The following is the resulting regression equation:
$\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q _ { 1 } + 1.28 Q _ { 2 } + 0.617 Q _ { 3 }$
Where
$$\hat { Y }$$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Instruction 14-4,using the regression equation,which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the second quarter of 2012?

• A)391,742
• B)1,238,797
• C)4,355,119
• D)144,212

Recognize the significance of relationship building in the negotiation process.

Differentiate between single episodic and systemic assumptions in strategy choice.

Understand the types of interests in negotiation and their implications.

Appreciate the role of concreteness, specificity, and measurability in goal setting.

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Definitions:

Efficient Markets Hypothesis

A theory stating that asset prices fully reflect all available information, making it impossible to consistently achieve higher returns than the average market return.

Random Walk

The path of a variable whose changes are impossible to predict.

Marginal Utility

The additional satisfaction or usefulness gained from consuming one more unit of a good or service.

Risk-averse

Describes individuals or entities that prefer to avoid risk and would rather choose a certain outcome over a gamble with a potentially higher, but uncertain, return.