Instruction 14-5
a Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model $\hat { Y }$

question 169

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-5
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log 10 $\hat { Y }$ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
Where
$\hat { Y }$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Instruction 14-5,the best interpretation of the constant 6.102 in the regression equation is

• A)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2005,after seasonal adjustment,is log₁₀(6.102).
• B)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2005,after seasonal adjustment,is 10^6.102.
• C)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2005,prior to seasonal adjustment,is log₁₀(6.102).
• D)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2005,prior to seasonal adjustment,is 10^6.102.

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Definitions:

Content Validity

The extent to which a test measures all aspects of the concept or construct it aims to assess.

Standardized Validity

The extent to which the results of a test or measurement are consistent and accurate across different populations and settings.

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The concept or state of being able to function under high levels of uncertainty or risk without significant failures or accidents.

Content Validity

The extent to which a test measures the entire range of material or behavior that is supposed to be measured.