Instruction 14-4
a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 89

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-4
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010.The following is the resulting regression equation:
$\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q _ { 1 } + 1.28 Q _ { 2 } + 0.617 Q _ { 3 }$
Where
$$\hat { Y }$$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Instruction 14-4,in testing the coefficient of X in the regression equation (0.117) the results were a t-statistic of 9.08 and an associated p-value of 0.0000.Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

• A)The quarterly growth rate in the number of contracts is not significantly different than 100% (? = 0.05).
• B)The quarterly growth rate in the number of contracts is significantly different than 100% (? = 0.05).
• C)The quarterly growth rate in the number of contracts is significantly different than 0% (? = 0.05).
• D)The quarterly growth rate in the number of contracts is not significantly different than 0% (? = 0.05).

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Definitions:

Fovea

A small depression in the retina of the eye where visual acuity is highest. This area is responsible for sharp central vision.

Fine Detail

The most intricate or nuanced aspects of something, usually requiring close attention or scrutiny to fully appreciate or understand.

Color-deficient Vision

A condition impairing the ability to see color differences, commonly referred to as color blindness.

Trichromatic

Pertains to the trichromatic theory of color vision, which states that the human eye has three types of receptors that are sensitive to red, blue, and green light.