Instruction 14-5
a Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model $\hat { Y }$

question 145

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-5
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log 10 $\hat { Y }$ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
Where
$\hat { Y }$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Instruction 14-5,in testing the significance of the coefficient for Q₁ in the regression equation (-0.129) which has a p-value of 0.492.Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

• A)The revenues in the first quarter of the year are significantly different than the revenues in the fourth quarter (? = 0.05).
• B)The revenues in the first quarter of the year are not significantly different than the revenues in the fourth quarter (? = 0.05).
• C)The revenues in the first quarter of the year are significantly different than the revenues in an average quarter (? = 0.05).
• D)The revenues in the first quarter of the year are not significantly different than the revenues in an average quarter (? = 0.05).

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Definitions:

Retina

The light-sensitive layer of tissue at the back of the eye that converts light into neural signals.

Cones

Cells in the eye's retina known as photoreceptors, which are optimal in well-lit conditions and allow for the observation of colors.

Rods

Photoreceptor cells in the retina that are highly sensitive to low levels of light and are important for night vision.

Periphery

The outer limits or edge of an area or object, often referring to areas situated away from a central point.