You Have Arranged to Go Camping for Two Days in March.You

question 110

Multiple Choice

You have arranged to go camping for two days in March.You believe that the probability that it will rain on the first day is 0.5.If it rains on the first day,the probability that it also rains on the second day is 0.5.If it doesn't rain on the first day,the probability that it rains on the second day is 0.3.Let the random variable X be the number of rainy days during your camping trip.Find the probability model for X.

• A) \[\begin{array} { l | c c c }
• \text { Rainy days } & 0 & 1 & 2 \\
• \hline \text { P(Rainy days) } & 0.35 & 0.5 & 0.15
• \end{array}\]
• B) \[\begin{array} { l | c c c }
• \text { Rainy days } & 0 & 1 & 2 \\
• \hline \text { P(Rainy days) } & 0.35 & 0.25 & 0.25
• \end{array}\]
• C) \[\begin{array} { l | l l c }
• \text { Rainy days } & 0 & 1 & 2 \\
• \hline \text { P(Rainy days) } & 0.25 & 0.5 & 0.25
• \end{array}\]
• D) \[\begin{array} { l | c c c }
• \text { Rainy days } & 0 & 1 & 2 \\
• \hline \text { P(Rainy days) } & 0.35 & 0.15 & 0.25
• \end{array}\]
• E) \[\begin{array} { l | l l l }
• \text { Rainy days } & 0 & 1 & 2 \\
• \hline \text { P(Rainy days) } & 0.35 & 0.4 & 0.25
• \end{array}\]

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Definitions:

Duplex Mind

A concept suggesting the mind has two different processing systems, one automatic and unconscious, and the other deliberate and conscious.

Automatic System

A cognitive system that operates quickly and without conscious effort, responsible for fast and intuitive reactions and judgements.

Conscious System

Refers to the parts of the mind that are aware of surroundings, thoughts, and feelings at any given moment.

Planning Fallacy

The tendency for plans to be overly optimistic because the planner fails to allow for unexpected problems.