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Suppose You Observe a Baby Sitting in Front of a Mirror

question 34

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Suppose you observe a baby sitting in front of a mirror. You now place a dot of rouge on the baby's nose. You see the baby look at the mirror, and then touch her own nose to feel why it is red. Your best guess is that this baby is about how old?


Definitions:

Unemployment

The state of being without a job despite being willing and able to work, often measured as a percentage of the labor force.

Hindsight Bias

The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it, often referred to as the "I-knew-it-all-along" phenomenon.

Intuitions

The capacity to grasp something through intuition rather than through logical thought.

Accuracy

The extent to which the outcome of a measurement, calculation, or specification matches the true value or a standard.

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