Imagine a Base Rate of 1 Percent for a Disease

question 98

Multiple Choice

Imagine a base rate of 1 percent for a disease, a false positive rate of 10 percent, and a sensitivity rate of 90 percent for the screening test for the disease. Using natural frequencies, which of the following is the closest estimate of the conditional probability that a person actually has the disease given a positive test result?

• A) 8 percent
• B) 10 percent
• C) 16 percent
• D) 20 percent

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Definitions:

Element

A single-type atom substance characterized by its unique atomic number, the count of protons in its nucleus, defining it as a pure chemical element.

Electron Configuration

The distribution of electrons of an atom or molecule in atomic or molecular orbitals, influencing chemical bonds and properties.

Element

A substance that cannot be broken down into simpler substances by chemical means, consisting of atoms all with the same number of protons.

Electron Configuration

The arrangement of electrons in an atom or molecule within atomic or molecular orbitals.