Exhibit 18

question 98

Short Answer

Exhibit 18.7.The following table shows the annual revenues (in millions of dollars)of a pharmaceutical company over the period 1990-2011. The autoregressive models of order 1 and 2, and ,were applied on the time series to make revenue forecasts.The relevant parts of Excel regression outputs are given below.
Model AR(1): Model AR(2): Refer to Exhibit 18.7.When for AR(1),H₀: β₀ = 0 is tested against H_A: β₀ ≠ 0,the p-value of this t test shown by Excel output is 0.9590.This could suggest that the model .might be an alternative to the AR(1)model .Excel partial output for this simplified model is: Find the revenue forecast for 2012 through the use of .

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