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Approximately 70% of the State of Pennsylvania Sits on a Shale

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Short Answer

Approximately 70% of the state of Pennsylvania sits on a shale formation from which natural gas may be extracted. If a geological test is positive, it has an 80% accuracy rate in correctly identifying a productive drilling site (shale is under the ground). If there is no shale under the ground, geological testing is falsely positive with a probability of 20%. Suppose the result of the geological test comes back positive (the test says there is shale under the ground). It is most important for us to know the probability that there is indeed shale under the ground given a positive geological test result. Find this probability.

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Definitions:

Investment Funds

Pooled funds from multiple investors used to collectively invest in securities such as stocks, bonds, or other assets, managed by professionals.

Manufacturing Flexibility

The ability of a manufacturing process to adapt to changes in products or production volumes with minimal delay and cost.

Capital Investment

Funds invested in a business with the expectation of future benefits, such as the purchase of equipment or property.

Qualitative Characteristic

Attributes that describe the non-quantifiable aspects of financial information, emphasizing the quality and utility of reported data.

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