Estimate 
using linear approximation.
Definitions:
Mental Set
A psychological tendency to approach situations in a certain way due to past experiences and problem-solving patterns.
Decision Making
The process of making choices by identifying a decision, gathering information, and assessing alternative resolutions.
Kahneman and Tversky
Two psychologists known for their work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics.
Sure Thing
A situation or outcome that is guaranteed or certain.
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