Annual Estimates of the Population in a Certain City from 2004

question 8

Essay

Annual estimates of the population in a certain city from 2004 (t = 1) onward are shown in the time series graph below. a. Identify the dominant time series component(s) in the data.
b. Below are the results from fitting a linear trend model to the data. Use this model to estimate the population in this city for 2014 (t = 11).
Fitted Trend Equation , = 57,206 + 528t
c. Below are the results from fitting a quadratic trend model to the data. Use this model to estimate the population in this city for 2014 (t = 11).
Fitted Trend Equation , = 58,159 + 52t + 43.3t2
d. The actual population estimate for 2014 is 63,828. Which model does better? Why?

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