Annual Estimates of the Population in a Certain City from 2004

question 8

Essay

Annual estimates of the population in a certain city from 2004 (t = 1) onward are shown in the time series graph below. a. Identify the dominant time series component(s) in the data.
b. Below are the results from fitting a linear trend model to the data. Use this model to estimate the population in this city for 2014 (t = 11).
Fitted Trend Equation , = 57,206 + 528t
c. Below are the results from fitting a quadratic trend model to the data. Use this model to estimate the population in this city for 2014 (t = 11).
Fitted Trend Equation , = 58,159 + 52t + 43.3t2
d. The actual population estimate for 2014 is 63,828. Which model does better? Why?

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Definitions:

Ingratiation

A psychological technique in which an individual attempts to become more appealing to others through flattery or other forms of manipulation.

Perceptual Distortion

The misinterpretation or misrepresentation of a perceived stimulus, affecting judgment or decision-making.

Ingratiation

A psychological tactic involving deliberate efforts to win someone's favor by flattery or other means of making oneself personally likable.

Perceptual Distortion

Perceptual distortion refers to inaccuracies or misinterpretations of sensory input, caused by biases, preconceptions, or psychological influences, affecting how information is perceived and processed.