Messenger Service ​ Three Messenger Services Deliver to a Small Town in Small

question 227

Essay

Messenger Service ​
Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon.Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries,service B has 30%,and service C has the remaining 10%.Their on-time rates are 80%,60%,and 40% respectively.Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. ​ ​
-{Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered 40 minutes late,what is the probability that it was service B?

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Definitions:

Availability Heuristic

A mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a person's mind, influencing their perception of a topic's prevalence or importance.

Framing

The process of shaping the perception or presentation of information in a way that influences judgment and decision-making.

Algorithms

Step-by-step procedures or formulas for solving problems or completing tasks, often used in computer programming and mathematics.

Representativeness Heuristic

A cognitive shortcut where the likelihood of an object belonging to a category is judged based on how representative it is of that category.