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The Following Table Contains Population Data for a Minnesota County

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The following table contains population data for a Minnesota county for the decades from 1900 to 1980:  Year  Clay County Population  Population Estimate  (Exponential Model)  Population Estimate  (Logistic Model) 190017,942191019,640192021,780193023,120194025,337195030,363196039,080197046,585198049,327\begin{array} { | l | c | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Clay County Population } & \begin{array} { c } \text { Population Estimate } \\\text { (Exponential Model) }\end{array} & \begin{array} { c } \text { Population Estimate } \\\text { (Logistic Model) }\end{array} \\\hline 1900 & 17,942 & & \\\hline 1910 & 19,640 & & \\\hline 1920 & 21,780 & & \\\hline 1930 & 23,120 & & \\\hline 1940 & 25,337 & & \\\hline 1950 & 30,363 & & \\\hline 1960 & 39,080 & & \\\hline 1970 & 46,585 & & \\\hline 1980 & 49,327 & & \\\hline\end{array} (a) Produce a scatter plot for the data.(b) Find an exponential model using the data from 1900 through 1950.(c) Find a logistic model using the data from 1900 through 1950. (Assume the carrying capacity is 440,000.)
(d) Use your models to estimate the population for 1960, 1970, and 1980. Enter your data in the table provided above.

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Definitions:

Forecasting Risk

The potential for a forecast to be inaccurate, which can lead to incorrect business decisions and financial performance assessments.

Sensitivity Analysis

A financial model technique used to determine how different values of an independent variable impact a particular dependent variable under a given set of assumptions.

Base Case

The default scenario in project assessments or financial modeling, representing expected conditions without any changes or shocks.

Worst Case

The most adverse or unfavorable scenario that can happen in a situation.

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