Exhibit 14.5 The Following Questions Are Based on the Information Below

question 58

Multiple Choice

Exhibit 14.5
The following questions are based on the information below.
An investor is considering 4 investments, A, B, C, D. The payoff from each investment is a function of the economic climate over the next 2 years. The economy can expand or decline. The following decision tree has been developed for the problem. The investor has estimated the probability of a declining economy at 40% and an expanding economy at 60%.
-Suppose that the payoffs for an alternative with three states of nature are: 10, 20, and 30. The probabilities of these states of nature are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. The expected payoff for the alternative is equal to

• A) 23
• B) 30
• C) 60
• D) 20

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Definitions:

Arrangement

The way in which items or affairs are organized, planned, or prepared.

Timely

Pertaining to the occurrence of actions or events at a suitable or opportune moment, ensuring relevance and effectiveness.

Informal Communication

The casual and unstructured manner of exchanging ideas and information typically outside formal communication channels.

Status Differential

The disparity in rank, power, or social standing between individuals or groups within a social hierarchy or organization.