One Day Ethan Had "A Feeling" That He Was Going

question 251

Multiple Choice

One day Ethan had "a feeling" that he was going to get a phone call from a long-lost friend. That evening, an old high school classmate called, inviting him to attend a class reunion. Now Ethan is telling everyone that he is psychic. According to your textbook, which cognitive bias provides the best explanation for Ethan's belief?

• A) the overestimation effect
• B) the belief-bias effect
• C) confirmation bias
• D) the fallacy of positive instances

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Definitions:

Prediction Intervals

A prediction of the range within which future results are expected to occur, with a specified level of confidence, based on existing observations.

Confidence Interval

A series of values, derived from investigations of a sample, expected to incorporate the value of an unrevealed population parameter.

Population Mean

The average value of all the elements in a population, representing a central measure of tendency for the distribution of values.

Christmas Trees

In the oil and gas industry, an assembly of valves, spools, and fittings used on a wellhead to control the flow of oil and gas.