Suppose You Are Going to Invest Equal Amounts in Three

question 67

Essay

Suppose you are going to invest equal amounts in three stocks. The annual return from each stock is normally distributed with a mean of 0.01 (1%) and a standard deviation of 0.06. The annual return on your portfolio, the output variable of interest, is the average of the three stock returns. Run @RISK, using 1000 iterations, on each of the scenarios described in the questions below, and report few results from the summary report sheets.
-(A) The three stock returns are highly correlated. The correlation between each pair is 0.9
(B) The three stock returns are practically independent. The correlation between each pair is 0.1
(C) The first two stocks are moderately correlated. The correlation between their returns is 0.4. The third stock's return is negatively correlated with the other two. The correlation between its return and each of the first two is -0.8.
(D) Compare the portfolio distributions from @RISK for the three scenarios in (A), (B) and (C). What do you conclude?
(E) You might think of a fourth scenario, where the correlation between each pair of returns is a large negative number such as -0.80. But explain intuitively why this makes no sense. Try running a simulation with these negative correlations to see what happens.

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Definitions:

Market Share

The portion of a market controlled by a particular company, product, or brand, often expressed as a percentage of total sales within that market.

Marketing Executive

A professional responsible for developing and executing strategies to promote a company’s products, services, or brand.

Subjunctive Verbs

Verbs used to express wishes, hypothetical situations, or conditions contrary to fact.

Recommendations

Advice or proposals given to someone about the best course of action based on analysis and expertise.