(A)Perform a Runs Test and Compute a Few Autocorrelations to Determine

question 83

Essay

(A)Perform a runs test and compute a few autocorrelations to determine whether this time series is random.
(B)Obtain a time series chart.Which of the exponential smoothing models do you think should be used for forecasting based on this chart? Why?
(C)Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data,using no holdout period and requesting 4 quarters of future forecasts.Use the default smoothing constant of 0.10.
(D)Repeat (C),optimizing the smoothing constant.Does it make much of an improvement?

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Definitions:

Parathyroid

Small glands located on the thyroid gland in the neck that produce parathyroid hormone, which regulates calcium levels in the blood.

Follicle-Stimulating Hormone

A hormone released by the anterior pituitary gland that stimulates the growth of egg-containing follicles in females and sperm production in males.

FSH

Follicle-Stimulating Hormone, a hormone involved in the reproductive processes of both males and females, including the maturation of ovarian follicles and sperm production.

Pituitary

A small gland at the base of the brain responsible for regulating vital body functions and general wellbeing through hormone secretion.