(A)Perform a Runs Test and Compute a Few Autocorrelations to Determine

question 83

Essay

(A)Perform a runs test and compute a few autocorrelations to determine whether this time series is random.
(B)Obtain a time series chart.Which of the exponential smoothing models do you think should be used for forecasting based on this chart? Why?
(C)Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data,using no holdout period and requesting 4 quarters of future forecasts.Use the default smoothing constant of 0.10.
(D)Repeat (C),optimizing the smoothing constant.Does it make much of an improvement?

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