A Midwife Conducted a Bayesian Analysis of Stork Numbers and Declining

question 11

Multiple Choice

A midwife conducted a Bayesian analysis of stork numbers and declining birth rates. She calculated a Bayes factor of 1. Should she use stork numbers to predict birth rates?

• A) No, a Bayes factor of 1 suggests that although declining stork numbers appear to coincide with declining birth rates it is not 'worth mentioning' and other factors may be at work.
• B) Yes, a Bayes factor of 1 suggests that it is worth trying to increase stork numbers in order to increase the birth rate.
• C) No, a Bayes factor of 1 suggests that the data is corrupted.
• D) Yes, a Bayes factor of 1 suggests that it is worth heavily investing in reducing stork numbers in order to reduce the birth rate.

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Definitions:

Dehydration

The condition resulting from excessive loss of body water, impairing normal bodily functions.

Blood Clots

Semi-solid masses of blood that form as a result of the coagulation process, which prevents excessive bleeding when blood vessels are injured.

Coagulation

The process of blood clotting, which is vital for stopping bleeding and initiating wound healing.