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Expectations Are Hard to Test Even Though Economists Know the Model

question 153

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Expectations are hard to test even though economists know the model the public uses when forming expectations.


Definitions:

Coefficient of Variation

A measure of relative variability that indicates the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean.

Standard Deviation

A statistical measure that represents the dispersion or variability around the mean of a dataset, commonly used to quantify the risk of an investment.

Stand-alone Risk

The risk associated with a particular asset or investment when it is not part of a portfolio, considering only its own variability of returns.

Risk Aversion

The tendency of investors to prefer lower risk in investment choices, reflecting a preference for certainty over uncertainty.

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