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Quarterly sales of a department store for the last seven years are given in the following table.
The Excel scatterplot shown indicates that the quarterly sales have an increasing trend and seasonality.Therefore,the linear regression model,Sales = β0 + β1Qtr1 + β2Qtr2 + β3Qtr3 + β4t + ε,with three seasonal dummy variables Qtr1,Qtr2,and Qtr3,and the decomposition method are proposed to make sales forecasts.For the regression model,the following Excel partial output is available.
(Use Excel. )Using MSE and MAD,compare the linear trend equation with seasonal dummy variables,
= 31,9261 - 7.855Qtr1 - 4.7362Qtr2 - 7.1656Qtr3 + 1.0749t,and the decomposition method equation
with
= 26.8819 + 1.0780t and the quarterly seasonal indices: 0.9322,1.0066,0.9441,and 1.1171.Which of the two corresponding forecasting models is recommended?
Percentage Change
The extent of difference, expressed as a percentage, that represents how much a value has increased or decreased from its original amount.
Agricultural Output
The total quantity of agricultural products, such as crops and livestock, produced in a given period.
Quantity Demanded
The total amount of a good or service that consumers are willing and able to purchase at a given price in a specified period.
Perfectly Price-inelastic
A situation where the quantity demanded of a good does not change regardless of changes in its price.
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