An Analyst Expects That 20% of All Publicly Traded Companies

question 74

Multiple Choice

An analyst expects that 20% of all publicly traded companies will experience a decline in earnings next year.The analyst has developed a ratio to help forecast this decline.If the company is headed for a decline,there is a 90% chance that this ratio will be negative.If the company is not headed for a decline,there is only a 10% chance that the ratio will be negative.The analyst randomly selects a company with a negative ratio.Based on Bayes's theorem,the posterior probability that the company will experience a decline is

• A) 18%.
• B) 26%.
• C) 44%.
• D) 69%.

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Definitions:

Support Departments

Units within an organization that provide essential services or support to the core operational departments but do not directly contribute to revenue.

Projected Long-Run Needs

Anticipated requirements of a business over an extended period, which influence operational and strategic planning.

Capital Budget

A budget for major capital, or investment, expenditures that are used to acquire or upgrade physical assets such as property and equipment.

Dual Cost Allocation

A method in cost accounting that assigns costs to products or services based on both direct and indirect cost factors.