An investor in Apple is worried the latest management earnings forecast is too aggressive and the company will fall short.His favorite analyst that covers Apple is going to release his report on Apple the week before the earnings announcement.Report stands for the analyst's report,and Forecast stands for the earnings announcement. 
What is the probability the earnings announcement is below the forecast?
Definitions:
Communication Research
The study of how people convey and receive messages within interpersonal, group, organizational, cultural, and media contexts.
Organizational Culture
The set of shared assumptions, values, and practices that characterize an organization and guide its members' behavior.
Contestable
Subject to disagreement or debate; capable of being disputed.
Underlying Reality
The fundamental truth or basis that exists beneath and supports observable phenomena or statements.
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