Approximately 70% of the State of Pennsylvania Sits on a Shale

question 98

Short Answer

Approximately 70% of the state of Pennsylvania sits on a shale formation from which natural gas may be extracted. If a geological test is positive, it has an 80% accuracy rate in correctly identifying a productive drilling site (shale is under the ground). If there is no shale under the ground, geological testing is falsely positive with a probability of 20%. Suppose the result of the geological test comes back positive (the test says there is shale under the ground). It is most important for us to know the probability that there is indeed shale under the ground given a positive geological test result. Find this probability.

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Definitions:

Compassion

The emotional response to perceiving suffering and involves an authentic desire to help alleviate that suffering.

Narcissism

A personality trait characterized by excessive interest in oneself and one's physical appearance.

Dimensional Approach

A method of understanding psychological phenomena by considering them on a continuum rather than as discrete categories, allowing for a more nuanced analysis.

Attachment

The link between a child and his or her primary caregiver.