In This Case,the Granger Causality Statistic Does Not Exceed the Critical

question 6

Essay

In this case,the Granger causality statistic does not exceed the critical value,and hence the conclusion is that the change in the inflation rate does not Granger-cause the unemployment rate. t = 0.05 - 0.31 ΔInft-1
(0.14)(0.07)
t = 1982:I - 2009:IV,R2 = 0.10,SER = 2.4
a.Calculate the one-quarter-ahead forecast of both ΔInf2010:I and Inf2010:I (the inflation rate in 2009:IV was 2.6 percent,and the change in the inflation rate for that quarter was -1.04).
b.Calculate the forecast for 2010:II using the iterated multiperiod AR forecast both for the change in the inflation rate and the inflation rate.
c.What alternative method could you have used to forecast two quarters ahead? Write down the equation for the two-period ahead forecast,using parameters instead of numerical coefficients,which you would have used.

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Definitions:

Positive Emphasis

The technique of highlighting the positive aspects or potential benefits in communication to create a favorable impression.

You-Attitude

A communication strategy focusing on the needs, interests, and perspectives of the audience, typically aiming to be more persuasive or engaging.

Mechanical Issues

Problems related to the machinery, equipment, or mechanical systems of a device or vehicle.

Discriminatory

Practices or attitudes that unfairly favor one group over another based on biases related to race, gender, age, or other personal characteristics.