A Manufacturer Must Decide Whether to Build a Small or a Large

question 47

Essay

A manufacturer must decide whether to build a small or a large plant at a new location. Demand at the location can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small plant is built, and demand is high, the production manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits is $223,000 if the firm chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 50% chance that the net present value of the returns will be 330,000 and a 50% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $210,000. If a small facility is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $200,000. However, if a large facility is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $40,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .3 or favorable with a probability of .7. If the response to advertising is modest, the net present value of the profits is $20,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net present value of the profits is $220,000. Finally, if the large plant is built and the demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $800,000.
-Draw a decision tree.

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Definitions:

Targeted Buyers

A specific group of consumers identified as potential purchasers of a product or service based on demographics or interests.

Technical Feasibility

Technical feasibility assesses whether a proposed project or system can be implemented with current technology and resources, ensuring it is practical from a technical standpoint.

New-product Development Process

A series of stages including ideation, design, development, and marketing that businesses follow to bring a new product to the market.

Proposed Design

A detailed plan or blueprint put forward as a solution to a problem, subject to evaluation, adaptation, or approval.