Refer to the Following Payoff Table

question 53

Multiple Choice

Refer to the following payoff table:

There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the posterior probability of S1 given that the research predicts S1?

• A) 0.18
• B) 0.44
• C) 0.57
• D) 0.65
• E) 0.82

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Definitions:

Adolescents

Young people transitioning from childhood to adulthood, typically within the age range of 13 to 19 years, characterized by significant physical, emotional, and psychological development.

Own Mortality

The awareness or recognition of one's eventual death, often leading to existential questioning or changes in perspective and behavior.

Singular Emotion

This term is not typical in psychological literature but could imply an intense feeling or affect that is unique or particularly dominant at a given moment.

Mourning People

Individuals who are experiencing grief and sorrow due to the loss of a loved one.