Refer to the Following Payoff Table

question 53

Multiple Choice

Refer to the following payoff table:

There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the posterior probability of S1 given that the research predicts S1?

• A) 0.18
• B) 0.44
• C) 0.57
• D) 0.65
• E) 0.82

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Definitions:

Parasomnias

A group of sleep disturbances characterized by unusual actions, feelings, sensations, or dreams that appear during the process of falling asleep, throughout the sleep period, in transitions between stages of sleep, or upon waking.

Piercing Scream

A very loud, high-pitched sound made by a person, often as a response to extreme fear or distress.

Parasomnia

A category of sleep disorders that involve abnormal movements, behaviors, emotions, perceptions, or dreams occurring while falling asleep, sleeping, between sleep stages, or during arousal from sleep.

Somnambulism

A sleep disorder known as sleepwalking, involving walking or performing other complex behaviors while in a state of partial arousal from deep sleep.