Medical Case Histories Indicate That Different Illnesses May Produce Identical

question 16

Essay

Medical case histories indicate that different illnesses may produce identical symptoms. Suppose a particular set of symptoms, which we will denote as event H, occurs only when any one of these illnesses, A, B, or C, occurs. (For the sake of simplicity, we will assume that illnesses A, B, and C are mutually exclusive.) Studies show the probabilities of getting the three illnesses are as follows: P(A) = 0.015, P(B) = 0.005, and P(C) = 0.025. The probabilities of developing the symptoms H, given a specific illness, are P(H/A) = 0.85, P(H/B) = 0.90, and P(H/C) = 0.70.
Assuming that an ill person shows the symptoms H, what is the probability that the person has illness A?

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Definitions:

Talents and Abilities

Inherent skills and capacities that individuals possess, which can be developed and applied to various tasks or activities.

Productivity

The measurement of the efficiency of a person, machine, factory, system, etc., in converting inputs into useful outputs.

Smelters

Facilities where metal is extracted from its ore through a process involving heating and melting.

Bureaucracy

A formal organization in which each person has specific duties and responsibilities and is assigned to only one supervisor.