A Local Business Owner Is a Bit Uncertain of the Demand

question 36

Essay

A local business owner is a bit uncertain of the demand forecast, and is timidly approaching the capacity decision for a business he is about to open. Here's how he describes the decisions that confront him over the next two years."First, I have to choose between building a large plant initially and building a small one that has room to expand. Or I could rent now, and decide whether to build next year. That one, too, could be the large version or the small. If I build small, then after one year, I can review how good business was, and decide whether to expand. If I build large, there is no further option to enlarge."Do not concern yourself with probabilities or payoff values .Simply draw the tree that illustrates the manager's decision alternatives and the chance events that go along with them. Use standard symbols for decision tree construction, and label all parts of your diagram carefully. To simplify, assume that business in the first year, and in the second, can be only "good" or "bad."

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Definitions:

Production Budget

A plan that outlines the number of units that must be produced within a period to meet the expected sales and inventory levels.

Units Produced

Units produced quantify the number of complete units manufactured or produced during a specific time frame in a production process.

Budget

An accounting device used to plan and control resources of operational departments and divisions.

Static Budget

A fixed budget that does not change or adjust to variations in business activity levels throughout the budget period.