A Local Business Owner Is a Bit Uncertain of the Demand

question 63

Essay

A local business owner is a bit uncertain of the demand forecast, and he is timidly approaching the capacity decision for a business he is about to open. Here's how he describes the decisions that confront him over the next two years.
"First, I have to choose between building a large plant initially and building a small one that has room to expand. Or I could rent now and decide whether to build next year. That one, too, could be the large version or the small. If I build small, then after one year, I can review how good business was, and decide whether to expand. If I build large, there is no further option to enlarge."
Do not concern yourself with probabilities or payoff values. Simply draw the tree that illustrates the manager's decision alternatives and the chance events that go along with them. Use standard symbols for decision tree construction, and label all parts of your diagram carefully. To simplify, assume that business in the first year, and in the second, can be only "good" or "bad."

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Definitions:

Complexity

The state or quality of being intricate or complicated, often referring to processes, systems, or issues with many interrelated parts or aspects.

Value-added Activities

Activities that increase the value of goods or services to the consumer, thereby making them more valuable in the eyes of customers.

Activity-based Costing

An accounting method that assigns costs to products or services based on the activities they require, improving cost accuracy.

Cost Pool

A grouping of individual costs, typically by department or service center, from which cost allocations are made later.