A Small Nation Is Considering Upgrading Its Air Force to Incorporate

question 7

Essay

A small nation is considering upgrading its air force to incorporate new technology. It faces two main choices. The first is to acquire a fleet of the latest fighter aircraft, with the newest electronics and weapons. The cost of the acquisition (assuming that the U.S. President and Congress agree to the sale) is $45 million per plane, including a stock of spare parts that should last five years. The second choice is to buy an electronic upgrade for existing aircraft, with a complete overhaul of the airframes. The cost of such an upgrade is $8 million per plane, with about a 10% loss of fleet because of damage beyond repair and "cannibalization" to obtain the highest number of flyable planes. The upgrading of existing planes results in aircraft with about 90% of the capability of the new aircraft.
Top pilots in the small country's air force are concerned that they may not be flying the best aircraft, and could face a disadvantage in combat against newer planes flown by a potential enemy. However, they acknowledge that if a numerical superiority against the enemy can be obtained, an overall victory is still likely. Their theory is that three of the upgraded planes should be able to win against one of the newer planes flown by an enemy (although the pilots expect higher losses in combat). How would an economic consultant advise the defense ministry of the small country in deciding how best to spend its available budget for air defense? What objective(s) are important for this decision? What are the pros and cons of the available options?

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Definitions:

Token Economy

A behavior modification system that utilizes tokens as reinforcement for desirable behaviors, which can be exchanged for rewards.

Modeling

The process of imitation or simulation, often used in learning or in the analysis of complex systems by replicating behaviors, patterns, or activities.

Self-Defeating Thoughts

Negative and often irrational beliefs or inner narratives that undermine one’s confidence and potential for success.

Cognitive-Behavioral

A therapeutic approach that addresses dysfunctional emotions, maladaptive behaviors, and cognitive processes through a combination of cognitive and behavioral techniques.