A Local Business Owner Is a Bit Uncertain of the Demand

question 36

Essay

A local business owner is a bit uncertain of the demand forecast, and is timidly approaching the capacity decision for a business he is about to open. Here's how he describes the decisions that confront him over the next two years."First, I have to choose between building a large plant initially and building a small one that has room to expand. Or I could rent now, and decide whether to build next year. That one, too, could be the large version or the small. If I build small, then after one year, I can review how good business was, and decide whether to expand. If I build large, there is no further option to enlarge."Do not concern yourself with probabilities or payoff values .Simply draw the tree that illustrates the manager's decision alternatives and the chance events that go along with them. Use standard symbols for decision tree construction, and label all parts of your diagram carefully. To simplify, assume that business in the first year, and in the second, can be only "good" or "bad."

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Definitions:

Mass Media

Various forms of communication channels, such as television, radio, newspapers, and the internet, that reach a large audience simultaneously.

Customer-oriented Pricing

A pricing strategy that considers the perceived value of the product or service to the customer rather than solely the cost of production.

Internal-oriented Pricing

Pricing strategy focusing on internal factors such as production costs and profit margins rather than market demand or competition prices.

Economic Factors

Variables such as inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and unemployment that influence the performance of an economy and its participants.