TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 5

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, the best interpretation of the coefficient of X (0.012) in the regression equation is

• A) the quarterly compound growth rate in revenues is around 2.8%.
• B) the annual growth rate in revenues is around 2.8%.
• C) the quarterly growth rate in revenues is around 1.2%.
• D) the annual growth rate in revenues is around 1.2%.

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Definitions:

Skyrockets

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Rank-Order Consistency

Comparing someone to the average person his or her age.

Variability

The degree to which data points differ from each other or the mean in a dataset, indicating the spread or dispersion of the dataset.

Maturation Of Personality

Growth in traits consistent with being more mature and grown-up, such as higher conscientiousness, higher agreeableness, and lower neuroticism.