Alternatives 1 and 2 in the Following Payoff Table Represent

question 14

Short Answer

Alternatives 1 and 2 in the following payoff table represent the two possible manufacturing strategies that the EKA manufacturing company can adopt. The level of demand affects the success of both strategies. The states of nature (S_I) represent the levels of demand for the company products. S₁, S₂, and S₃ characterize high, medium, and low demand, respectively. The payoff values are in thousands of dollars.
The management believes that weather conditions significantly affect the level of demand. 48 monthly sales reports are randomly selected. These monthly sales reports show 15 months with high demand, 28 months with medium demand, and 5 months with low demand. 12 of the 15 months with high demand had favorable weather conditions. 14 of the 28 months with medium demand had favorable weather conditions. Only 1 of the 5 months with low demand had favorable weather conditions. Based on this information, the prior probabilities have been revised. If the weather conditions are favorable, P(S₁) = .4286, P(S₂) = .5357, and P(S₃) = .0357; and if the weather conditions are poor, P(S₁) = .1364, P(S₂) = .6818, and P(S₃) = .1818. It is also determined that the probability of favorable weather is .56 and the probability of poor weather is .44.
Determine the expected value of sample information. What is the maximum amount that the company is willing to pay for the weather information and the additional analysis?

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Definitions:

Insolvency

Refers to the financial condition where an entity can not meet its debt obligations as they come due.

Consecutive Years

Years that follow one after another without interruption.

Involuntary Bankruptcy

A legal process initiated by creditors to force a debtor into bankruptcy proceedings, in order to recoup debts owed by liquidating the debtor's assets.

Nonprofit Organizations

Organizations that operate for charitable, educational, cultural, scientific, or social welfare purposes rather than for profit.