Ray Crofford Is Evaluating Investment Alternatives for the $100,000 Which $\quad$

question 13

Multiple Choice

Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1) expected profits (in $10,000's) for various market conditions and their probabilities, and (2) the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets. $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$$\text { Actual Market }$
$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\text { Market Condition }$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\text {Advisor's}$$\quad$$\text {Condition}$
$\begin{array}{c}\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|}\hline \text { Investment } & \text { Bull (0.8) } & \text { Bear (0.2) } & \text { EMV } \\\hline \text { Bonds } & 12 & -3 & 9 \\\hline \text { Stocks } & 25 & -30 & 14 \\\hline \end{array}&\begin{array}{|c|c|c|}\hline\text { Prediction } & \text { Bull }\left(S_{1}\right) & \text { Bear }\left(S_{2}\right) \\\hline \text { Bull }\left(F_{1}\right) & 0.9 & 0.3 \\\hline \text { Bear }\left(F_{2}\right) & 0.1 & 0.7\\\hline \end{array}\end{array}$

If the advisor predicts a Bull market the EMV of the Stocks alternative, using revised probabilities, is closest to________.

• A)$168,900
• B)$207,650
• C)$157,300
• D)$306,000
• E)$134,650

---

Definitions:

Preschooler

A child typically between the ages of 3 and 5 years old who is in the developmental stage before entering formal schooling.

Psychosocial Stage

Stages of psychological and social development postulated by Erik Erikson, through which an individual progresses throughout their lifetime.

Identity Versus Identity Confusion

Erikson’s fifth developmental stage, which individuals experience during the adolescent years. At this time, adolescents examine who they are, what they are all about, and where they are going in life.

Initiative Versus Guilt

A stage in Erickson's psychosocial development theory where children learn to exercise independence and initiative, but may feel guilt when unsuccessful.