Ray Crofford Is Evaluating Investment Alternatives for the $100,000 Which $\quad$

question 54

Multiple Choice

Ray Crofford is evaluating investment alternatives for the $100,000 which he inherited from his grandfather.His investment advisor has identified two alternatives and constructed the following tables which show (1) expected profits (in $10,000's) for various market conditions and their probabilities, and (2) the advisor's track record on predicting Bull and Bear markets. $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$ $\quad$$\text { Actual Market }$
$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\text { Market Condition }$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\quad$$\text {Advisor's}$$\quad$$\text {Condition}$
$\begin{array}{c}\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|}\hline \text { Investment } & \text { Bull (0.8) } & \text { Bear (0.2) } & \text { EMV } \\\hline \text { Bonds } & 12 & -3 & 9 \\\hline \text { Stocks } & 25 & -30 & 14 \\\hline \end{array}&\begin{array}{|c|c|c|}\hline\text { Prediction } & \text { Bull }\left(S_{1}\right) & \text { Bear }\left(S_{2}\right) \\\hline \text { Bull }\left(F_{1}\right) & 0.9 & 0.3 \\\hline \text { Bear }\left(F_{2}\right) & 0.1 & 0.7\\\hline \end{array}\end{array}$

The probability that the advisor predicts a Bull market and the Bull market is the actual condition p(F₁?S₁) is ________.

• A)0.78
• B)0.9
• C)0.953
• D)0.923
• E)0.72

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Definitions:

Security Interest

A legal claim or lien on collateral that has been pledged, usually by a debtor to secure repayment of a loan, giving the lender a right to repossess the property if the loan is not repaid.

Buyer in the Ordinary Course

An individual who purchases goods in good faith from a seller who is in the normal course of business of selling such goods.

UCC

The Uniform Commercial Code, a comprehensive set of laws governing commercial transactions in the United States, designed to harmonize the law of sales and other commercial contracts.

Convention on Contracts for International Sale of Goods

An international treaty that establishes a uniform framework for the law governing the international sale of goods.