Calculate Three Forecasts Using the Following Data

question 134

Essay

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 120.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .60, .30, and .10. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why? $$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 120 \\2 & 115 \\3 & 125 \\4 & 119 \\5 & 127 \\6 & 114 \\7 & 120 \\8 & 124 \\9 & 116 \\10 & 137 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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Definitions:

Flexibility

The capacity to adapt to new, different, or changing requirements and conditions.

Emotional Restraint

The practice of controlling or moderating one's emotional expressions, often valued in various cultural or professional settings as a sign of maturity or professionalism.

Emotional Expressiveness

The degree to which individuals outwardly display their emotional states through facial expressions, body language, and tone of voice.

Introspection

The examination or observation of one's own mental and emotional processes.