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The manager of a small gasoline station observes that while gasoline sales have been steady, the service side of the business has fallen off, and mechanics are often idle. He decides to offer a promotion - an oil change for $10 with a coupon mailed to 800 households in a 2-mile radius from his station. The $10 will just cover the costs of the oil change, and the cost of printing and mailing is $1,000. He hopes the promotion will increase regular maintenance service calls, which averages to $40. (Materials and labour per job cost $30.) If two hundred customers used the coupon, what will be the total cost of the promotion? (Disregard any opportunity costs.)
Gambler's Fallacy
A logical fallacy in which one assumes that future probabilities are altered by past events, often seen in gambling when assuming a certain outcome is "due".
Sunk Cost Fallacy
The misconception of valuing a project or investment based on the amount of resources already invested, rather than the prospective future returns.
Argumentum Ad Hominem
A logical fallacy that occurs when an argument is rebutted by attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, rather than addressing the substance of the argument itself.
Gambler's Fallacy
The erroneous belief that if an event happens more frequently than normal during a past period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or vice versa.
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