Project 11 $\text { Dave's Buwling Lanes }$ Information from the Cosmic Bowling Upgrade Manufacturer Suggests a 3-5

question 43

Essay

Project 11.2  Predicting Bowling Games
Dave Cummins runs a local bowling alley. In the face of increasing competition from other local establishments, Dave has decided he must upgrade his facilities to accommodate a younger crowd. He has examined various "cosmic bowling" upgrades for his facility and has finally decided on a package. Dave has approached a local bank for financing assistance. The bank is conservative in its lending practices. As a result the loan manager would like more insight into the potential earnings of the bowling alley, with and without the upgrades. You bowl in leagues in Dave's bowling alley. You enjoy the establishment and Dave is a friend. Thus, you have offered your services to help Dave provide a reasonable projection of establishment earnings based on bowling games. Dave has provided you the following information on lines of bowling over the past five years.
$\text { Dave's Buwling Lanes }$
$\begin{array}{|c|c|c|}\hline \text { Year } & \text { Quarter } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Lines of } \\\text { Bowling }\end{array} \\\hline 1994 & \text { Summer } & 3829 \\& \text { Fall } & 3699 \\& \text { Winter } & 3555 \\& \text { Spring } & 3657 \\\hline 1995 & \text { Summer } & 3894 \\& \text { Fall } & 3778 \\& \text { Winter } & 3641 \\& \text { Spring } & 3731 \\\hline 1996 & \text { Summer } & 3987 \\& \text { Fall } & 3842 \\& \text { Winter } & 3731 \\& \text { Spring } & 3825 \\\hline 1997 & \text { Summer } & 4052 \\& \text { Fall } & 3934 \\& \text { Winter } & 3803 \\& \text { Spring } & 3892 \\\hline 1998 & \text { Summer } & 4148 \\& \text { Fall } & 4010 \\& \text { Winter } & 3880 \\& \text { Spring } & 3968 \\\hline\end{array}$ Information from the cosmic bowling upgrade manufacturer suggests a 3-5% increase in bowling lines every year for the first 4 years after the installation of their product. Based on Dave's data develop an appropriate forecasting model. Provide Dave forecasts for the next year both with and without the cosmic bowling upgrade.

---

Definitions:

Immaturity

A state or condition of not being fully developed or lacking the emotional or intellectual development appropriate for one's age.

Preconscious Mind

Part of the mind containing thoughts and feelings that are not currently in consciousness but can be accessed with attention.

Unconscious Mind

A part of the mind that contains thoughts, memories, and desires not within the sphere of current consciousness, influencing behavior.

Conscious Mind

The aspect of mind that is aware of thoughts, feelings, and surroundings at any given moment.