TABLE 16-13 a Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Model

question 17

Short Answer

TABLE 16-13
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 1998 to 2002. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀Y^{^} = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^{^} is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 1998.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-13, using the regression equation, what is the forecast for the revenues in the first quarter of 2005?

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Definitions:

Inventory Period

The duration of time it takes for a company to turn its inventory into sales, typically measured in days.

Operating Cycle

The average period of time between the purchase of goods and services for production and the receipt of cash from sales of the final products.

Inventory Turnover

A financial ratio that measures how many times a company's inventory is sold and replaced over a specific period.

Payables Turnover

A financial ratio that shows how quickly a company pays off its suppliers by comparing net purchases to average accounts payable.