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TABLE 16-11
Business Closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 1989 to 1994

question 147

True/False

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 1989 to 1994 were:
199310199411199513199619199724199835\begin{array} { l l } 1993 & 10 \\1994 & 11 \\1995 & 13 \\1996 & 19 \\1997 & 24 \\1998 & 35\end{array} Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT-2nd Order
Model
 Coefficients  Intercept 5.77 XVariable 1 0.80 XVariable 2 1.14\begin{array}{lc} & \text { Coefficients } \\\text { Intercept } & -5.77 \\\text { XVariable 1 } & 0.80 \\\text { XVariable 2 } & 1.14\end{array}

SUMMARY OUTPUT-1st Order\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT-1st Order}
Model\text {Model}

 Coefficients  Intercept 4.16\begin{array}{ll} & \text { Coefficients } \\\text { Intercept } & -4.16\end{array}

XVariable 11.59 \underline{\text {XVariable \(1 \quad 1.59\)}}
-Referring to Table 16-11, the values of the MAD for the two models indicate that the first-order model should be used for forecasting.

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Definitions:

Organizational Change

The process through which a company or organization alters its structure, strategies, operational methods, technologies, or organizational culture to effect change.

Cognitively Rigid

An individual's difficulty in adjusting their thinking or beliefs in response to new information, often leading to inflexible or unadaptive behavior.

Seeking Routine

The pursuit of regular, predictable patterns of behavior in one’s daily life to enhance stability and reduce uncertainty.

Short-term Focus

Concentrating efforts and resources on immediate goals, often at the expense of long-term objectives.

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