TABLE 16-13 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 8

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-13
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 1998 to 2002. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀Y^{^} = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^{^} is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 1998.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-13, in testing the significance of the coefficient of X in the regression equation (0.012) which has a p-value of 0.0000. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

• A) The quarterly growth rate in revenues is significantly different from 1.2% (? = 0.05).
• B) The quarterly growth rate in revenues is significantly different from 0% (? = 0.05).
• C) The quarterly growth rate in revenues is not significantly different from 1.2% (? = 0.05).
• D) The quarterly growth rate in revenues is not significantly different from 0% (? = 0.05).

---

Definitions:

Subcategories

Specific groups or divisions within a larger category, used to further classify items or data.

Box Plot

A graphical representation of statistical data based on the minimum, first quartile, median, third quartile, and maximum, showcasing the distribution's spread and central tendency.

Median

The middle value in a data set, which divides the data into two halves with an equal number of observations above and below it.

Mean

The average value of a set of numbers, calculated by dividing the sum of all the values by the number of values.