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TABLE 16-4
Given Below Are EXCEL Outputs for Various

question 58

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-4
Given below are EXCEL outputs for various estimated autoregressive models for Coca-Cola's real operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1975 to 1998. From the data, we also know that the real operating revenues for 1996, 1997, and 1998 are 11.7909, 11.7757 and 11.5537, respectively.
 AR (1)  Model: \text { AR (1) Model: }
 Coeficients  Standard Error t Stat p-value  Intercept 0.18020770.397971540.4528155460.655325119 XLag1 1.0112225330.04968515820.352607572.64373E15\begin{array}{lcccc}\hline & \text { Coeficients } & \text { Standard Error } & t \text { Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 0.1802077 & 0.39797154 & 0.452815546 & 0.655325119 \\\text { XLag1 } & 1.011222533 & 0.049685158 & 20.35260757 & 2.64373 \mathrm{E}-15\end{array}


 AR (2) Model: \text { AR (2) Model: }
 Coefficients  Standard Error t Stat p-value  Intercept 0.300474730.44076410.6817132570.503646149 XLag1 1.173221860.2347378814.9980082297.98541E05 XLag2 0.1830281890.2507166690.7300200260.474283347\begin{array}{lcccc}\hline & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & t \text { Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 0.30047473 & 0.4407641 & 0.681713257 & 0.503646149 \\\text { XLag1 } & 1.17322186 & 0.234737881 & 4.998008229 & 7.98541 \mathrm{E}-05 \\\text { XLag2 } & 0.183028189 & 0.250716669 & -0.730020026 & 0.474283347\end{array}


 AR (3)  Model: \text { AR (3) Model: }
 Coeficients  Standard Error t Stat p-value  Interept 0.3130432880.5144372570.6085159720.550890271 XLag1 1.1737195870.2464905944.7617216010.000180926 XLag2 0.0693785670.3730865080.1859583910.854678245 XLag3 0.1221235150.2820312970.4330140530.670448392\begin{array}{lrccc}\hline & \text { Coeficients } & \text { Standard Error } & t \text { Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Interept } & 0.313043288 & 0.514437257 & 0.608515972 & 0.550890271 \\\text { XLag1 } & 1.173719587 & 0.246490594 & 4.761721601 & 0.000180926 \\\text { XLag2 } & -0.069378567 & 0.373086508 & -0.185958391 & 0.854678245 \\\text { XLag3 } & -0.122123515 & 0.282031297 & -0.433014053 & 0.670448392\end{array}


-Referring to Table 16-4 and using a 5% level of significance, what is the appropriate AR model for Coca-Cola's real operating revenue?


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