SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 157

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is your forecast for the 13^th month using the quadratic- trend model?

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Definitions:

Century

A period of 100 years, often used to denote significant historical timelines or epochs.

Cyclically Balanced Budget

A cyclically balanced budget is a fiscal policy approach where government budgets are planned to balance over the economic cycle, allowing for surpluses in boom years and deficits in recession years.

Government Expenditures

The total amount spent by the government for its various services, projects, and functions within a specified period.

Fiscal Policy

Government policies related to taxes and spending with the goal of influencing the economy's growth, inflation, and employment levels.