SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 156

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,using the regression equation,what is the forecast for the revenues in the first quarter of 2016?

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Definitions:

Money Supply

The grand total of money available in an economy at a specific time, encompassing cash, coins, and deposits in checking and savings accounts.

Domestic Goods

Goods that are produced within a country's borders and are part of its national output.

Foreign Currency

Money or legal tender issued by a country other than one's own, used for international trade and investment.

Price Levels

A mean calculation of prices for all goods and services currently in the economic domain.