SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 28

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the second month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.5?

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Definitions:

Automatic Stabilizers

Economic strategies and initiatives aimed at stabilizing a country's economic fluctuations without further action from the government or policy makers.

Built-in Stabilizer

Economic policies or instruments, like progressive taxation and welfare, that automatically reduce the amplitude of economic fluctuations without additional government intervention.

Progressive Income Tax

A tax system in which the tax rate increases as the taxable amount increases, generally applied to income tax to ensure higher earners pay a larger percentage of their income.

Unemployment Compensation

Unemployment Compensation is a government-provided financial assistance to individuals who have lost their job through no fault of their own, aiming to support them temporarily.