SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 168

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is your forecast for the 13^th month using the linear-trend model?

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Definitions:

Specific Performance

An equitable remedy requiring exactly the performance that was specified in a contract. Usually granted only when money damages would be an inadequate remedy and the subject matter of the contract is unique, for example, real property.

Injunction

A court decree ordering a person to do or to refrain from doing a certain act.

Capital Asset Pricing Model

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model that describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets, particularly stocks.

Nondiversifiable Risk

Risk that cannot be eliminated by investing in many projects or by holding the stocks of many companies.