SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 57

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,what is the exponentially smoothed value for the 12^th month using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.5 if the exponentially smooth value for the 10^th and 11^th month are 9,746.3672 and 9,480.1836,respectively?

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Definitions:

Comstock Lode

A major discovery of silver ore in Nevada in 1859 that led to a mining boom, significantly influencing the economy of the United States.

Western Settlement

The expansion and establishment of communities in the western part of the United States during the 19th century, often facilitated by the government.

Theodore Roosevelt

The 26th President of the United States (1901–1909), known for his progressive policies, conservation efforts, and the Panama Canal construction.

Late Nineteenth Century

A period in history spanning from 1801 to 1900, marked by significant industrial, cultural, and political changes globally.